Decision Making Models Essay

Managers have the responsibility of making decisions within that guide and provide direction to their organizations. Although decisions may be made by individuals, groups, or teams, it is the manager who coordinates the process of decision making. Managers make use of various decision making models to effectively steer the organizations. It is worth to noting that there is no one model or style that is always right or perfect in decision making. This is so because different people are successful and satisfied using different styles. There are two major broad models of decision making. These are the deterministic and probalistic models. The deterministic models result in good decisions with good outcomes. The manager using this model is able to get what he/she expects i. e. the out come is risk free. In probabilistic decision models, the expected results are uncertain and thus making good decision may not necessarily lead to good outcomes. The probabilistic decision making model is characterized by more concern with both the outcome value and the amount of risk each decision carries. All other effective decision making models can be classified as either deterministic or probabilistic model. The other subcategories of decision making models are mechanical, mental/verbal, analytical, and simulation. These models are classified based on such characteristics such as types, evolution in time, and availability of information (McCall M. , and Kaplan, R. (2001). ). Mechanical models take physical appearance of the object. They are used to display or test the design of items ranging from new buildings to new products. Mental/verbal models are also important and can be used to verbalize decision strategies for more complicated decision making models. The other model is analytical model which is a mathematical model and aimed at simplification, abstraction of real systems to give insight and understanding to some interested aspect of reality (Klein G. , et al. , (Ed. ) (1993). The analytical models are applicable to the deterministic systems. A simulation model is the last model that I am going to address. Simulation models are the computerized duplications of real systems and are seen to be more realistic, especially when modeling dynamic/probabilistic systems e. g. as used in aviation industry. Current Application Decision making models have assisted managers a lot in making viable decisions within the organization. The models discussed above have been implemented by individuals within organizations to come up with good decisions. For instance, the mental/verbal model has been used to aid in problem identification, in the development phase as well as the selection phase of decision making. Decision support system (DSS) has found usage in air-line management. Decision support systems and the models have been used to make decision both under risk, certainty, and even conflict in organizations. Other applications of the decision making models include the DSS for fiber optic Network Architecture Design and application of technology to cardiovascular diagnosis. Decision making models have also been used in forecasting with examples such as regression models and Box-Jenkins models. In brief, the use of effective decision making models by mangers has helped organizations to improve their businesses as a result of quality decision. The various effective decision making models used by mangers have both benefits and drawbacks or challenges associated with them. Mechanical decision making models have the advantage of being usable for experimentation. Mechanical models are credited for clearly describing the problem of system under study and thus results in innovative designs alternatives for decision making. Mechanical models also have some challenges in that they do not contain explicit relationships between the decision alternatives and dependant variables or objectives Mental/verbal models make the manager unable to experiment with them and cannot be used to show how outcomes or measures of effectiveness change with decision alternatives. It is also not possible to show how the relationships change with the decision alternatives. These models have the advantage of being easy to understand. They are also based on many years of managerial experience (Klein G. , et al. , (Ed. ) (1993). The advantages of analytical models include that they aim at simplification and bring understanding to some interested aspect of reality. They can also help to test the effects of different decision alternatives, constants and parameter values more easily than with any other type of model. They can also analyze complex problems efficiently and concisely, and in many cases provide the cheapest way to analyze these problems. Although they are the most prevalent models in use today they may not be easily accepted by managers who lack training, experience and time to use them. Simulation models have a high degree of abstraction and as such many managers do not want to work with them. The reason of this could be lack of enough training in and exposure to those models. The other reason is that trained managers may lack sufficient time to pay attention to model. Despite these drawbacks the models are beneficial in the sense that in comparison to the mechanical model they can facilitate experimentation because both the independent variables, dependent variables, constants and parameters are explicitly related by language of mathematics.